Official figures from the ONS, released on 20 May, put UK inflation at 2.8% in April, down from 3.3% in March. The drop is real. The cause is specific: Ofgem's energy price cap fell 7% on 1 April, cutting the average dual-fuel household bill by £117 a year. That direct reduction in electricity costs did most of the work in the CPI basket. The broader picture is more complicated.
Why inflation fell in April, and why it may not stay down.
Electricity prices fell 8.4% in April compared with a rise of 2.9% a year earlier. That single category accounts for most of the 0.5 percentage-point fall in the headline rate. Gas prices also contributed as the lower cap filtered through.
The complication is that wholesale energy markets have been driven higher by ongoing Middle East disruption. Analysts expect those higher costs to start passing through to consumer prices in the second half of 2026, once the current price cap period ends. Oxford Economics has set out an explicit forecast: Bank Rate stays at 3.75% for the rest of 2026 and "well into 2027", with rising energy costs in H2 cited as one of the central reasons. The brief fall to 2.8% does not change that underlying view.
What the June 18 MPC decision looks like from here.
The Monetary Policy Committee meets on 18 June, 24 days from today. At the April meeting, eight of nine members voted to hold at 3.75%, with one voting for a 25 basis-point rise. Since then, the data has moved in both directions: inflation is down, which is positive for future cuts, but the geopolitical energy risk has not gone away, and swap rates have risen as markets reprice the global interest-rate path.
Markets are not pricing in a June cut. Most forecasters who had pencilled in two or three cuts across 2026 have revised those expectations down. That does not make a cut impossible, but it would require CPI to undershoot further and energy markets to stabilise, neither of which looks certain right now. The most defensible read is that a hold at 3.75% on 18 June is the most likely outcome. Anyone making a significant financial decision that depends on a rate cut before the summer should factor that in.
What it means for buyers in the patch.
For buyers looking at homes in Huntingdon, Brampton and the wider patch, the practical position is better than the headline uncertainty suggests. The mortgage market has actually improved since the April MPC meeting. Rightmove's daily mortgage tracker put the average two-year fixed rate at 5.18% in mid-May, down from 5.42% in April. Five-year fixes have edged in as well.
That improvement reflects lenders responding to the lower CPI data rather than a rate cut itself. It is incremental rather than transformative, but a buyer completing now will access better terms than they would have six weeks ago.
The question most buyers in the patch are weighing is whether to fix for two years or five. If Oxford Economics is right that rates hold into 2027, the two-year option only pays off if rates fall sharply in the second half of 2027. A whole-of-market broker can model both against your specific deposit, property price and risk appetite. That conversation is best had before you make an offer, not after.
What it means if you are remortgaging this summer.
For homeowners whose fixed deal expires between now and December 2026, the case for waiting on rate cuts is harder than it looks. If Bank Rate holds at 3.75% until mid-2027, choosing to wait means spending six or nine months on your lender's standard variable rate (typically 7% or above) before eventually moving to a product that might be 0.25% cheaper. For most borrowers in the patch, that arithmetic does not favour delay.
The practical step is to get a whole-of-market broker to compare what your current lender will offer as a product transfer without penalty, what the open market offers today, and how both compare to continued months on the SVR. Rates can always surprise on the upside or the downside, but the cost of sitting on an SVR while you wait is immediate and real.
What sellers in the patch should take from this.
The CPI data does not change the fundamental dynamic for sellers. Rightmove's May 2026 report puts buyer choice at its highest point since 2015. That means properties are competing more on price and condition than they were 12 months ago. At 3.75%, Bank Rate is well below the 5.25% peak of 2023, and buyer demand across the patch has normalised rather than collapsed.
A June rate cut, if it happened, would bring more buyers into the market. But the market is functional without one. Pricing into the current reality rather than the 2022 peak is what moves property in Huntingdonshire right now. If you are thinking about selling later this year, a current valuation is the right starting point.
Watch this date
18 June 2026: next MPC decision
The MPC meets on 18 June. A hold at 3.75% would confirm the rate corridor through the summer. A cut, while unlikely, would push fixed rates lower. If you have a mortgage decision in the next three months, talk to a broker before the 18th, not after.
Sources: ONS Consumer Prices Index, UK: April 2026 (released 20 May 2026); Ofgem energy price cap Q2 2026; Rightmove House Price Index May 2026 (mortgage tracker, mid-May); Oxford Economics interest-rate forecast, May 2026; Bank of England MPC dates 2026.